National Weather Service: winter outlook shows milder winter upcoming
FARGO, N.D. (KVRR) — Above average temperatures in the Fargo-Moorhead area last month helped the small amount of snow we received to quickly disappear, and the long-range outlook indicates the mild temperature pattern will continue through a good portion of the winter.
Tyler Thomas, Grand Forks National Weather Service General Meteorologist, said “Yeah, even looking beyond December to the winter as a whole, its really tied to El Niño and how were in such a strong El Nino Right Now”
Stronger El Nino’s like this one tend to result in above average temperatures and lower than average rain and snow, which doesn’t happen very often.
Thomas also said, “Best recent analog is probably the 2009-2010 season where it was just that super El Niño. I Think that winter ended up being well above average in terms of temperature and slightly below average to a little more than slight below average on snowfall and precipitation overall”
But Thomas makes it clear that even a strong El Niño pattern is no guarantee against extreme cold or high snowfall amounts. “You got to remember even if we do come out above average were still see those colder than average temperatures at some point most likely. Its not going to be above average and were just averaging 20 degrees throughout the winter, you’ll see your 0 degree, your minus 10, wind chills in the -20s most likely.”
Due to the less snow expected, there is a smaller chance for a white Christmas, but temperatures around then should be more enjoyable for the holidays.
With less than average precipitation expected, travel is expected to be slightly easier, but people still need to watch for specific snowfall events.
