Do Iowa Caucus Results Matter?

After months of campaigning and millions of dollars spent on ads, voters in Iowa finally get their say in the presidential race.
 
But now that the nation’s first caucus is over, how much will those results matter going forward.
 
It was a surprising night, with Ted Cruz beating the favorite, Donald Trump, in the GOP caucus.

Hillary Clinton beat Bernie Sanders by a hair in the Democratic race.

But the consensus is, those results don’t mean much in the long run.
 
Frank, Mel, and company shoot the breeze at West Acres Mall nearly every day. So, naturally, politics sometimes comes up.
 
“All the time,” says Frank Kenitzer of Fargo. “When you get retired like we are, you sit down. I watch a lot of the news.”
 
Monday’s Iowa Caucus caught them a little by surprise.

The leader in the polls, Donald Trump, came in second.
 
“I figured that more of the Iowa people would be in favor of him,” admits Mel Schroeder of West Fargo, “but I was glad to see those kind of results.”
 
But what do these results mean?

NDSU Political Science Professor Dr. Nick Barouth says you can’t win the nomination in Iowa, but you can lose nearly all hope.
 
“Separates the people who have a shot from those who certainly do not,” says Dr. Barouth.
 
Two candidates have already dropped out since Monday, Republican Mike Huckabee and Democrat Martin O’Malley.

Barouth says other candidates could be knocked out next week after the New Hampshire primary.
 
He warns, “It’s probably going to be the last stand for some candidates.”
 
Other candidates, like Marco Rubio and his third place finish, are looking much better.
 
“Sort of a self-fulfilling prophecy,” Barouth explains. “You do well in Iowa, you’re a viable candidate.”
 
“It’s perception,” adds Kenitzer. “It’s such a media-driven culture.”
 
With most voters supporting candidates still in the race, Barouth says the Iowa results likely won’t affect voters’ decisions in upcoming primaries.
 
“I don’t see it making a big change,”, he says, “on the Democratic side for sure.”
 
“I think people ignore these results,” Schroeder admits. “They’re gonna vote the way they want.”
 
And, experts say forget about using Iowa to predict the ultimate nominees.
We still have 49 more primaries and caucuses to go.
 
Dr. Barouth at NDSU says the results in Iowa could change poll numbers in New Hampshire by a couple points, but not enough to change predictions.

Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders are both strong favorites in the Granite State.