The Madness of March Madness: Using Stats to Make Your Predictions

Statistic students and professors at NDSU try to cut through the March Madness, and predict a winner using logic.
The doctoral students and a professor each used a different statistical model to pick a bracket for this year’s NCAA men’s basketball tournament.

The students worked on the models for months, trying to predict which of the 64 teams will cut down the nets.

The top model claims to have a 60 percent success rate, when games in later rounds are weighted more heavily in the formula.

“The one’s I’ve seen, a lot of them are 57, 56, so 60 percent is really good, I want to emphasize that. That’s about the most you can expect.”
In case you’re looking for some help picking your bracket, two of the models have North Carolina winning it all, while the third model predicted Kansas.

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